Elliott Wave Forecast For EURUSD: Prices Up Before Down

EURUSD is moving higher for the last few days but on very low volume and momentum, which is usually an early signal for a trend change.  This is clearly evident on RSI with bearish divergence. From an Elliott Wave Perspective we can also see a three wave A-B-C rise from 1.2750 which is a structure of a corrective price action. As such, traders must be aware of a bearish reversal especially if we consider a shape of an ending diagonal which is a trend-reversal pattern. An impulsive fall from highs and down to  1.3160 will be a first but strong indication that rally is complete and that EUR is headed lower.

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Elliott Wave Forecast: USD Index Could Find A Support Around 82.00

USD Index has moved out of wave B range yesterday so prices are now already in wave C, final leg of a three wave decline. As such, traders must be aware of a trend reversal, especially if we consider that move out of a triangle is final within larger structure. From a confirmation point of view we need impulsive rally back through 83.15 to turn bullish on the buck.

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Elliott Wave Forecast For AUDUSD: Bear Market Rally

AUDUSD recovered nicely in this week from 0.9000 psychological level, but rally may not last long as we suspect that current bullish leg is wave C), final leg of a three wave recovery in blue wave (4). It seems that pair has made a flat correction, which means that market can turn sharply bearish very soon. Keep an eye on minor impulse down for evidence of a downtrend continuation. We will be tracking hourly price action on intra-day page very closely.

Regular flat

A Flat is a three-wave pattern labeled A-B-C that generally moves sideways. It is corrective, counter-trend and is a very common Elliott pattern.

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S&P 500: Pull-back Within Uptrend

S&P Futures extended its gains in the last few days which we think its an impulsive red wave 3). This wave must be made by five smaller waves which mean that we will be looking higher in the near-future. Right now, we can see minor correction lower which is wave 4 that may look for a support around 1655 in the near-future.

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GOLD Forecast: Price Could Turn Bearish Next Week

GOLD recovered nicely in the last two weeks which has been expected because of completed five wave decline in black wave 3. So if our count is correct, then current pull-back is corrective wave 4, part of a larger incomplete decline in wave 5) of C. Notice that now we can already count three legs up from the lows which means that market could turn bearish very soon, ideally from around 1300-1310 resistance area. However, only price can confirm a downtrend; which means minor impulse down back to 1200. In such case we will look for a decline in 5th wave towards 1100 level or even lower. For now critical region stands at 1336 because wave 4 must not trade into a territory of a wave one. 

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Elliott Wave Forecast: Crude Oil-Pullback To 102.30 Could Be A New Long Opportunity

OIL found resistance around 107 in this week which has been expected because of five wave rally in wave 3, and we know that after every five wave move correction will follow. As such, market is now headed lower in minimum three waves which is most-likely wave 4 that will reach region of a previous fourth wave, around 102.30. In that area we can also see a base channel and 38.2% Fibonacci level that may react as a nice support next week.  Traders may want to keep a close eye on that zone to join the ongoing uptrend. 

 

Elliott Wave Forecast: Forex Correlations With S&P

Japanese yen is the strongest currency following the Bernanke speech yesterday while commodity currencies are the weakest. Reason for strong JPY is higher US bonds/lower yields. On the next overlay chart we can see that best market to sell is the AUDJPY while the best pairs to buy in risk-on environment is EURUSD or GBPUSD and even some EUR and GBP crosses.
Market Correlations 1h # chart here

Based on market correlations below and the S&P futures count we may see more USD selling in the near-term. S&P is showing incomplete bullish impulse with current pause in wave four from where prices may rally up in five towards 1675 today.
S&P Futures 1h # chart here

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Elliott Wave Forecast For Crude Oil

Crude Oil is moving higher after small corrective wave (iv) pull-back at the start of the week which was part of a black wave 3. Price is now in wave (v), final leg within impulsive structure so be aware of a corrective retracement into wave 4 in the next few days. Fibonacci resistance (261.8% extension of wave 2) for wave 3 comes in at 108.00.

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Elliott Wave Forecast: USD Index In the Middle Of An Impulsive Uptrend

USD has extended its gains in the last few days and now showing some clear impulsive bullish formation. It seems that market is in the middle of a black wave 3 that may be targeting 85.00. However, before this level is achieved we may see a minor corrective pull-back down to 84.10.

GOLD: Price Could Rise To 1300

Gold was down on Friday after NFP report, but weakness did not last long as pull-back from 1267 was only wave (b), still only second leg of incomplete three wave rally from 1180. As you know we are tracking wave 4 that may reach 1280-1300 area before downtrend is back. So for now, lets focus for higher prices within wave (c).

On the intra-day chart GOLD is forming an intra-day pull-back from latest swing high which we think its correction within uptrend from 1207. Support for current three waves down comes in at 1240.

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EURUSD: Break of 1.2800 Puts 1.2500 In Play

EURUSD made three legs up from 1.2750 low to 1.3420 which we believe it was a corrective, contra-trend price action within a larger downtrend. We are talking about blue wave (2) which is showing signs of completion around 1.3420 level after sharp decline in the last three weeks with impulsive personality. Notice that pair is now already testing an important trend-line from October 2012 swing lows. Break here is expected which may cause a significant decline in the second part of this year.

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Bearish Pattern on 30 Year US Bonds Could Cause Risk-Off Mode/Strong USD

USD is in bullish mode since yesterdays ECB and BOE rate decisions when both banks decided to leave the policy unchanged. USD is up against the EUR, GBP and CHF, but slightly down against the JPY and commodity currencies. So picture is quite mixed across the market, especially if we also consider lower metals and higher stock market.

In few hours we will get NFP numbers from the US which will definitely shake the markets pretty hard. The reason is a speculation regarding the QE; if employment situation in the US will improve then this will suggest that FED may lower QE earlier than expected (expected reaction=lower bonds, lower stocks, higher USD, lower Gold). On the other-hand bad figures will suggest that QE will not end anytime soon which will be supportive for risk-on trade and bad for the USD. We will have to keep a very close eye on the 10 or 30 year US bonds because this will be the main driver for the markets later today.

On 30year US bonds we can see only three wave rise from the low which can be wave (4) is weakness may resume in wave (5).

30year US bonds 2h

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Elliott Wave GBPUSD: New Sell-Off Can Occur from 1.5320-1.5400

GBPUSD found a support yesterday around 1.5130 from where we now labeled end of an extended black wave 3 followed by a corrective rally in wave 4. Corrections are minimum three wave patterns so we expect to see more upside price action in the near future before can continue. Nice resistance comes in at 1.5320-1.5400.

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Elliott Wave Analysis for USDJPY: Five Waves Down Is Bearish Signal

USDJPY reached new lows few hours back around 99.20 where we marked end of a five wave decline from 100.83. We know that five wave patterns show direction of a trend so we think that larger trend for USDJPY is down and that current intra-day rally represents a correction within larger downtrend. Ideally pair is now in wave (ii) but even if that would be wave (b) bias is lower for a third leg of decline. Ideally market will find resistance around 100 level after three legs up. We will be considering shorts with our members in coming sessions.

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Elliott Wave Analysis For USDJPY: Corrective Rally Approaching Resistance at 101-102

USDPY is trading higher and now forming much sharper and extended pull-back from 93.78 than previously thought. However, rise is still in three waves with wave C now approaching to important resistance area at 101.50-102.00 where we can see 78.6% retracement of wave A)/1) and as well as wave A=C level. As such, that’s very important zone for a possible turning point. But only impulse sell-off from here and back to 99.00 will confirm our bearish bias.

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Elliott Wave Forecast For GBPUSD: Completed Recovery Is Pointing To 1.4800

On GBPUSD we can see impulsive bearish reversal from 1.5750 high so we suspect that wave II rally from 1.4830 is complete. The reason is a structure from that low which cannot be counted impulsively; therefore we think it was corrective move, double zig-zag that is now pointing for weaker GBP, back to 1.4800.
GBPUSD Daily Chart

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Elliott Wave GBPUSD: Intra-day Resistance Comes In At 1.5280-1.5300

FX market did not move much in the last few hours, so structures are mostly unchanged. On GBPUSD we are tracking a corrective rally from the low which can be wave 4 shown as primary labeled count. Resistance for wave 4 comes in at 1.5280-1.5300, but based on ALT count we also need to keep an eye on 1.5475-current bearish bias would change only above that level.

GBPUSD 1h

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Elliott Wave Forecast For EURUSD: Pair Could Reach 1.2750

EURUSD made three legs up from 1.2750 low to 1.3420 which we believe it represents a corrective, contra-trend price action within a larger downtrend. We are talking about blue wave (2) which is  showing signs of completion around 1.3420 level after sharp decline in the last two weeks which is impulsive move. As such, we expect further weakness in coming days and weeks, ideally back to April low as a first projected target zone on the way down.

"Traders, please check our next video on EURUSD and why we think that pair may fall much lower in the next few days and even weeks."

EURUSD: You Must See These Charts!! Video Analysis