USD is in
bullish mode since yesterdays ECB and BOE rate decisions when both banks
decided to leave the policy unchanged. USD is up against the EUR, GBP and CHF,
but slightly down against the JPY and commodity currencies. So picture is quite
mixed across the market, especially if we also consider lower metals and higher
stock market.
In few hours we
will get NFP numbers from the US which will definitely shake the markets pretty
hard. The reason is a speculation regarding the QE; if employment situation in
the US will improve then this will suggest that FED may lower QE earlier than
expected (expected reaction=lower bonds, lower stocks, higher USD, lower Gold).
On the other-hand bad figures will suggest that QE will not end anytime soon
which will be supportive for risk-on trade and bad for the USD. We will have to
keep a very close eye on the 10 or 30 year US bonds because this will be the
main driver for the markets later today.
On 30year US
bonds we can see only three wave rise from the low which can be wave (4) is
weakness may resume in wave (5).
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