Elliott Wave Forecast for USD Index: Price Could Turn Bullish From 83.00

On USD-Index we are now tracking a deep corrective A)-B)-C) pull-back called a zig-zag that represents part of an incomplete larger bullish trend. Ideally prices are now in final stages of wave (2) which should then find a support very soon, somewhere around 82.50/83.00 area. An impulsive reaction higher with a daily close somewhere above 83.75 will be bullish sign for the USD.

USD Index 4h

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Elliott Wave Forecast For USDJPY and S&P Futures-Both Looking Bearish

S&P Futures turned around perfectly from that 1655/1660 resistance area that we highlighted it several times in our past updates. Notice that pull-back from 1636 was in three waves that now appear complete after current new leg down. In fact, we also see a head and shoulders pattern that is pointing for a sizeable move to the downside if/when neckline gives way.
S&P Futures 1h

If S&P count above is correct, then USDJPY will continue lower because of positive correlation. Price could fall sharply in such case, through 100 figure within wave three. 101.27 is now short-term critical resistance.
USDJPY 1h

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Elliott Wave Forecast for USDJPY: Testing Important Rising Trend-Line

USDJPY broke higher in the last few weeks and hit 102-103 area as highlighted few weeks back. This break occurred after a triangle in wave 4, and interesting thing is that move after that pattern is usually final within a larger trend, if we consider the Elliott Wave guidelines. As such, we are observing an ending diagonal placed in wave 5) that is showing first signs of completion around 103.70. The reason is recent impulsive weakness towards the trend-line connected from early April. Break and daily close below it will put pair in bearish mode at least temporary.

USDJPY Daily Elliott Wave Forecast

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Elliott Wave Forecast For USDCHF: Uptrend Continuation Pattern

USDCHF reversed sharply lower at the end of the last week from 0.9837 to 0.9590, which can be counted as a five wave decline. However, we must keep in mind that larger trend is up, so we need to label the wave count that fits best into the current price action. In other words, we need to stay with a trend, so we suspect that those five waves down represents wave C, final leg of a three wave flat correction in wave 4). In fact, we can see that prices reversed sharply from latest low, in impulsive fashion, so ideally wave 4) is complete and market is headed higher within wave 5) towards parity while 0.9590 level holds.

USDCHF 4h Elliott Wave Forecast

 

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Elliott Wave Forecast: S&P and Nikkei Futures Could Turn Lower Soon

Both S&P and Nikkei futures are moving higher at the moment but larger pattern and five waves down from latest highs suggest that rally is only corrective and part of a bearish structure. Resistance for Nikkei comes in around 15000. On the S&P traders should keep an eye on 1654 level; if broken on a daily close basis, then bears should take control in sessions ahead which will send USD and JPY higher against its rivals. In such case we will be looking for USD Long set-ups, probably against the EURUSD, which is looking corrective from 1.2795.

S&P 500 1h

Nikkei 1h

 

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USDJPY Turns Bearish-Elliott Wave

USDJPY reversed sharply lower in this week from 103.70 area where we see signs of a temporary top. Also notice that recent decline has extended through 102.00 wave (b) support which is very important sign for completed bullish waves, because after a long time we have seen a break of the former swing low. With that in mind, we assume that we have seen a top on this pair, ideally of an ending diagonal, but for minimum expectations we expect to see at least one more sell-off, either fall from the top is a corrective move or not. Daily close beneath the trend-line connected from April lows would be strong bearish view for the pair.

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EURUSD: Downtrend Continuation to 1.2700-Elliott Wave

EURUSD made a three wave rally in this week which has been expected in wave 4, but now pair is already turning lower again after completed zig-zag at 1.3000 psychological level. We can see that price broke through the lower side of a corrective channel which is a very important evidence for further EURUSD weakness, this time to 1.2680/1.2730 for wave 5. Critical level now stands at 1.3000; bearish trend below it.

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S&P500 LONG-TERM Prediction: Price Could Reach 2000

We are looking at the SPY ETF of the S&P500 index which is in bullish mode since 2009 low. Recent gains exceeded previous swing highs very sharply in recent weeks so we think that market is forming a new impulsive bullish run that could react 200 area on SPY which equals 2000 on S&P500. The reason for this bullish outlook is current sharp rally which is showing a personality of an impulsive recovery so we think that market is in the middle of wave three of three. The next thing for higher projections is also cycles in time. Based on latest swings from year 2000 we suspect that current bullish period will last till 2015 when price could reach 2000 on the S&P500 in combination with 161.8% Fibonacci extension of blue wave (IV).

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