Elliott Forecast For AUDUSD: Correction Could Be Near Completion

AUDUSD is in a bearish reversal mode since last Friday when market completed a five wave recovery at 0.9528. As such, the contra-trend reaction has unfolded in three waves which has been expected as this is the minimum substructure of a corrective movement. Notice that now we have three waves down, with wave C trading at the area of a previous fourth wave. We can also see a decreasing momentum in this wave C based on reading on the Force index indicator. With that in mind reversal higher may follow soon, but it will be confirmed only if price reverses back to 0.9456 level. Nice technical support for wave C comes in at 0.9280.

If you are interested in our analysis then you can try us absolutely FREE FOR 7 DAYS!

Visit  http://www.ew-forecast.com/service/ for more details

German Dax: Temporary Correction Within Uptrend-Elliott Wave Forecast

German DAX futures are in bullish move since start of September, showing an impulsive price action. Impulse is a five wave pattern so we expect more upside as current decline from the highs appears to be a fourth wave, a temporary contra-trend movement. For now, we don't see a completed pull-back yet, but market could find a support around 8510-8570 region where we see an open gap. Those gaps could react as a reversal, in our case as a support in wave 4 for a reversal up into wave 5. Targets for wave 5 are around 8860 where we see a 200% extension of a previous decline from 0845 to 8090 in August.  

Basically those fourth waves are pull-backs that could represent an opportunity to join the larger trend. However, if you are looking for any set-ups after wave four retracement its important to know some rules of the Elliott Wave principle. One of the most important rule is that wave 4 must never retrace back to the area of a wave 1. In our case this comes in at 8279, so as long market is above this level bullish view remains valid. 

German DAX 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

Written by www.ew-forecast.com | Try EW-Forecast.com's Service Free For 7 Days at http://www.ew-forecast.com/service 

USD Index: Rally Is Looking Corrective, Bearish Waves Could Resume Soon

The markets are still very slow and choppy in tight ranges, so our view remains unchanged. We think that FX pairs are forming just a corrective price action within larger trend against the USD.

On the USD index hourly chart below we see a three wave rally from 80.13 within two parallel trend lines which we think its a contra-trend move; a-b-c. Notice that in wave c we also have a wedge pattern which looks like an ending diagonal. Ending diagonals are reversal pattern, so if we are correct then USD Index should turn bearish. Decline is expected to accelerate after a break of lower support line and 80.48 swing low. 

USD Index 1h

Based on USD Index bearish outlook the majors are expected to rally, particularly EUR, GBP, and CHF.

On GBPUSD we see a potential low in place of a three wave decline from 1.6160 to 1.5952 where pair may have completed a wave c leg of a contra-trend movement. Based on the latest price action immediate rise to 1.6044 and ideally 1.6086 is expected while 1.5952 holds. 1.5950 level should represent a stop loss to any intra-day long set-ups.

GBPUSD 30min

Written by www.ew-forecast.com | Try EW-Forecast.com’s Services Free For 7 Days at http://www.ew-forecast.com/service 

Elliott Wave Forecast For EURUSD and USDCHF

The market has been very slow for the last few sessions, so we suspect that pairs are trapped in corrective price action that will send USD lower in the near-term, particularly against the EUR, GBP and CHF, while commodity currencies such as AUD and CAD could stay under pressure or maybe sideways while metals, oil and other commodities are weakening. 

Our focus is still on EURUSD where we see a three wave move from the top which we think its corrective wave (iv) that already tested 38.2% retracement area so uptrend could resume soon up in wave v).

EURUSD 1h 

USDCHF is also slow and sideways in 45 pip range which its personality of a corrective price action. As such, pause around 0.9100 area is most likely just another correction within a downtrend. We believe its wave iv) which will send prices down in wave v) towards 0.9050 in this week. The only question is from where weakness will resume; from current prices or from 0.9160 where it’s a 38.2% retracement area.

USDCHF 1h

Written by www.ew-forecast.com | Try EW-Forecast.com’s Services Free For 7 Days at http://www.ew-forecast.com/service 

EURUSD Could Move Above 1.3600-Elliott Wave Forecast

EURUSD closed above 1.3500 figure last week which suggests more upside in this week. The reason for bullish outlook in the short-term is a sharp rally from 1.3320 low which appears to be a third leg within a third based on the personality of the move. Recently a third leg has stopped in 1.3565 so we suspect that current contra-trend movement is wave iv) that could look for completion around the upper trendline of a base channel. Keep in mind that larger trend is up and that uptrend could resume soon into wave v) of (iii) towards 1.3620. This outlook remains valid as long as 1.3384 level is not breached.
EURUSD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

Written by www.ew-forecast.com | Try EW-Forecast.com’s Services Free For 7 Days at http://www.ew-forecast.com/service 

USDJPY: Short-term Prices Are Back In Bullish Mode

USDJPY reversed sharply from 97.75 region in this week, which appears to be an impulsive price action that also took out the upper side of a downward channel. These are all important signs for a change in trend, even if just temporary. With that said, we will be looking for higher USDJPY in days ahead as long as 97.75 low of a complex correction is in place. Ideally market will continue higher back to 100.60 region in impulsive fashion.

If you are interested in our analysis then you can try us absolutely FREE FOR 7 DAYS!

Visit  http://www.ew-forecast.com/service/ for more details

Elliott Wave Review: EURUSD and USDJPY

Markets gapped against the USD on Sunday, away from Friday's close price. We can see higher prices on EURUSD, US bonds and also US stocks futures after Lawrence Summers withdrew from the contest to succeed Ben Bernanke as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. We have also seen a gap down on Crude Oil Futures after the U.S. and Russia have agreed on a framework for Syria to destroy its chemical weapons stockpile by the middle of 2014, as by media on Saturday.

Below we can see a gap up on EURUSD, where we expected a move higher into wave C after recent correction in B wave. Keep in mind that gaps usually get filled and that we also have only a three wave rise from monthly lows so bearish reversal could follow in this week. Technical resistance comes in at 1.3380-1.3400.
EURUSD 1h Elliott Wave Analysis

While EURUSD and US Bonds gapped higher the USDJPY moved to the downside and finally reached levels around 98.50 that we highlighted several times last week. However we need five wave move in wave (c) for a valid and completed expanded flat correction. As such, we are not tracking an ending diagonal in wave (c) that may complete the pattern around 98.00 area with a sub.-wave v). We also see a 61.8% in that zone which could be very interesting for buyers. 

USDJPY 1h Elliott Wave Analysis

Written by www.ew-forecast.com | Try EW-Forecast.com’s Services Free For 7 Dayas at http://www.ew-forecast.com/service 

Elliott Wave Pre-NFP Review: EURUSD and USDCAD

Markets did not go far since yesterday’s US close, as speculators are sitting on their hands ahead of the US NFP report today at 12:30GMT. Expectations are 178K; if news will be better than this, let’s say around 200K, then be aware of a strong push higher on USD Index that will cause weaker majors. At the same time US bonds could extend the decline based on QE tapering because of good data. Markets however may not be ready for tapering just yet, there is a lot of risk involved especially in stocks, and as a result we could see a spike higher on US stocks futures on good number but then sharp bearish reversal on speculation for tapering.

On the other-hand, if data will be bad then stocks may not go far but EUR, GBP and others will find a bid, but only temporary, because our wave patterns are pointing for strong USD. Lets take a look at EURUSD and USDCAD

On EURUSD prices fell sharply yesterday from 1.3220 which could be start of a larger impulsive weakness. The reason is also a current bounce from 1.310 that has qualities of a corrective move. As such, bias remains bearish. Intra-day resistance is seen at 1.3150, at 38.2% Fibo level. Any rise back to 1.3220 will put pair in bullish mode, but only temporary for a larger corrective rally.

EURUSD 30min

On USDCAD we can see lower prices, but based on the wave structure since end of August we suspect that pair is in final stages of a corrective move, called a flat correction. Wave (c) already has five waves down, so be aware of a bounce. Break above 1.0515 wave (iv) point will suggest that flat is complete and bullish moves underway.

USDCAD 1h

Written by www.ew-forecast.com | Try Ew-Forecast.com's Services Free for 7 Days 

USDCHF Could Test 1.0000 By The End Of 2013 - Elliott Wave Forecast

USDCHF: Sharp reversal in 2011 from 0.7000 area is impulsive leg, and we know that impulses show direction of a current trend. As such, we think that pair is now bullish for minimum three wave rise; A)-B)-C). In the last few months we have seen a slow and choppy price action in 0.8900-1.0000 range which now seems to be a contracting triangle placed in wave B). We can already count five waves within this pattern so traders must be aware for a push higher into wave C) later this year.

USDCHF Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis

On Daily Chart contracting triangle is now in final stages. We are tracking a wave E that may be looking for a support around 0.9050-0.9200 zone. An impulsive bullish reversal in price back to 0.9700 will put USD in bullish mode against Swiss franc for a push above parity.

USDCHF Daily Elliott Wave Anaysis

 What is Triangle Elliott Wave Pattern?

A Triangle is a common 5 wave pattern which is labeled A-B-C-D-E.  Triangle moves counter-trend. It is corrective in nature. Triangles move within two channel lines drawn from waves A to C, and from waves B to D. A Triangle is either contracting or expanding depending on whether the channel lines are converging or expanding. Triangles are overlapping five wave affairs that subdivide 3-3-3-3-3.

Contracting Traingle:

• •        Structure is 3-3-3-3-3
• •        Each subwave of a triangle is usually a zig-zag
• •        Wave E must end in the price territory of wave A
• •        One subwave of a triangle usually has a much more complex structure than others subwaves
• •        Aappears in wave four in an impulse, wave B in an A-B-C, wave X or wave Y in a double threes, wave X or wave Z in a triple threes

Written by www.ew-forecast.com

EURUSD Could Bounce Back to 1.3220-1.3250 Before Downtrend Resumes

EURUSD is trading nicely lower for the last two weeks, which could be start of a new larger impulsive bearish trend. Notice that decline from 1.3400 is much larger compared to first leg down from 1.3450. Well, as we know third waves in the middle of a five wave decline are typical the longest, so we suspect that market is forming an impulsive decline, now with back wave 3 in progress that can extend even down to 1.3020 level while market trades beneath the upper trend line of a base channel. However, corrections and pull-backs will always occur, so don't be surprised by a retracement back to 1.3220-1.3250.

EURUSD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

Written by www.ew-forecast.com | Try EW-Forecast.com’s Services Free for 7 Days at http://www.ew-forecast.com/service 

EURUSD Could Be Forming A Major Turning Point For The Year-Elliott Wave Analysis

EURUSD is trading nicely lower for the last week or so which could be start of a new larger impulsive bearish trend. However, decline from 1.3450 is actually still in three waves so corrective outlook must not be ignored but we will stay with current sentiment and focus on the bearish scenario as long as 1.3400 holds. Ideally market is now in the middle of an impulsive wave 3, and broken support channel line (blue circled zone on 4h chart) is important evidence for this count, because this breakout usually causes an acceleration that makes wave three the longest and sharpest wave. Downside projections for wave 3 are at 1.3130 and 1.3040.

EURUSD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

On a daily chart we can see that EURUSD has been in uptrend mode almost all summer from 1.2750, but recovery has a corrective look. With that said, we think that move is complex correction, probably a flat and that larger trend will continue lower, especially if we consider a five wave decline from 1.3700 at the start of the year. Keep in mind that impulses show direction of a larger trend, which in our case it means down. If we are correct then latest bullish leg represents wave C) of a three wave pull-back that is already showing some evidences of a top at 1.3450. We however still need a larger impulsive weakness towards 1.3000 to confirm the end point of wave (2). If pair can do that, then EURUSD will be ready for a sharp fall in the rest of the year, probably to 1.2500 if not lower.

EURUSD Daily Elliott Wave Analysis 

On a weekly chart we are also tracking a huge head and shoulder pattern where right shoulder could already be finished, so weakness is expected towards the neckline. 

EURUSD Weekly Head & Shoulder Pattern 

Written by www.ew-forecast.com | Try EW-Forecast.com’s Services Free for 7 Days

E-mini S&P Can Retrace Back to 1667 Before Downtrend Resumes-Elliott Wave Analysis

S&P has been trading sharply lower last week but now showing some evidences of a low around 1625 area which is fine because we already have five needed sub-waves down in wave (A). We know that after every five wave move correction is expected, so recovery or sideways price action in this week should not be a surprise. We are talking about blue wave (B) that could already be underway and may even reach 1667 area before the Friday's US NFP. After wave (B) pull-back we will be looking for a strong sell-off in wave (C), into a third leg of decline.

S&P 500 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

The important thing that we need to understand now is a five wave of decline from 1705, which means that bearish reversal on stocks is confirmed and that prices will stay in bearish mode for few more weeks, and that any bounce will be temporary and limited with 1705.